War of Words! Now, former CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian says IMF GDP forecasts for India ‘consistently INACCURATE’

War of Words! Now, former CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian says IMF GDP forecasts for India ‘consistently INACCURATE’

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War of Words! Krishnamurthy Subramanian, the Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund has said that the IMF’s GDP growth forecasts for India have been consistently ‘INACCURATE’. In contrast, he claimed that his predictions of India’s GDP growth have been accurate. The issue stems from IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack recently stating that Krishnamurthy Subramanian’s 8% GDP growth forecast for the Indian economy does not represent that of the International Monetary Fund. Krishnamurthy Subramanian has previously served as a Chief Economic Advisor for the government of India.
IMF had clarified that the recent growth projections made by Krishnamurthy Subramanian, the Executive Director representing India at the IMF, do not reflect the official views of the organization.
In response to Subramanian’s remarks predicting an 8 percent growth rate for India, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack stated that his comments were made in his capacity as India’s representative. “The views conveyed …by Mr. Subramanian were in his role as India’s representative at the IMF,” she said according to a PTI report. Kozack highlighted the distinction between the views of individual representatives like Subramanian and the IMF’s official projections.
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Post IMF’s clarification, Subramanian in a post on Twitter (formerly X) said, “During my tenure at @IMFNews (since Nov-22), IMF staff’s estimate of India’s growth rate has been consistently INACCURATE. While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have all been <7%. In contrast, I’ve made accurate predictions. See my Sep-21 prediction – Expect more than 7% growth for India this decade: CEA Subramanian. And actual growth FY21-22=9.7%; FY22-23=7.0%; FY23-24 (estimate)=7.6%. The Data speaks!”
“In contrast, check IMF staff predictions. For FY 23-24, in Nov-22 and Jan-23, IMF staff predicted growth=6.1%. In Apr-23, they lowered it to 5.9%. In Nov-23, they predicted 6.3%. And actual growth estimate (NSSO) for FY23-24 =7.6%; IMO, will be revised to ~8%,” he wrote.
“So, IMF staff’s error margins are HUGE: 1.9% in Nov-22 & Jan-23 estimates, 2.1% in Apr-23 estimate, and 1.7% in Nov-23 estimates. Similarly, even FY23-24 growth estimates of IMF staff <7%. Data clearly shows whose prediction is more accurate! Need I say more?”, he added.
Subramanian had recently expressed optimism about India achieving an 8 percent growth rate until 2047 if the country continues its current policies and accelerates reforms.
“So, the basic idea is that with the kind of growth that India has registered in the last 10 years, if we can redouble the good policies that we have implemented over the last 10 years and accelerate the reforms, then India can grow at 8 per cent from here on till 2047,” he was quoted as saying.
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The IMF had previously projected a medium-term growth rate of 6.5 per cent, with a slight upward revision from earlier estimates.
The organization is set to release updated forecasts in the coming weeks. Kozack reaffirmed the upcoming release of the World Economic Outlook report, which will provide the latest growth projections.


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